Aleksandr Sorokin from Lithuania, the world record holder for the 100 km, 100 mi, 12- and 24-hour runs, has announced a new record attempt for the 100 km, which will take place on May 14, 2023. The athlete’s current achievement of 6:05:41 was recorded in April 2022. Preparing for the race, Sorokin ran a marathon in Seville (February 19, 2023) with a new personal best of 2:25:33. Is it possible, based on this, to predict Aleksandr’s chances of becoming the first person in history to run 100 km in less than 6 hours?
1. The Oldest – Comrades Marathon
Based on the results of the regression analysis, two equations for predicting the result for the 100 km were obtained; one of them features wind speed as a variable, while the other works solely with the marathon result. Of course, the second one is more applicable to predicting Sorokin’s performance, since guessing what the weather might be like during the race in May is rather pointless. So here is the “simple equation”:
Based on the results of the regression analysis, two equations for predicting the result for the 100 km were obtained; one of them features wind speed as a variable, while the other works solely with the marathon result. Of course, the second one is more applicable to predicting Sorokin’s performance, since guessing what the weather might be like during the race in May is rather pointless. So here is the “simple equation”:
2. The Oldest – Comrades Marathon
Based on the results of the regression analysis, two equations for predicting the result for the 100 km were obtained; one of them features wind speed as a variable, while the other works solely with the marathon result. Of course, the second one is more applicable to predicting Sorokin’s performance, since guessing what the weather might be like during the race in May is rather pointless. So here is the “simple equation”:
Based on the results of the regression analysis, two equations for predicting the result for the 100 km were obtained; one of them features wind speed as a variable, while the other works solely with the marathon result. Of course, the second one is more applicable to predicting Sorokin’s performance, since guessing what the weather might be like during the race in May is rather pointless. So here is the “simple equation”:
